Weekly market insight — 2026-09-25
Uptrend under pressure; 46% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day line
Conditions moved from a correction to an uptrend under pressure. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% and the Nasdaq rose 2.1% and the Dow Jones rose 0.3% over the week. Heavy-volume down days in the tracked window fell from 7 to 5. Of the 502 S&P 500 stocks, 26% closed the week above their 50-day average and 46% above their 200-day average. Last week those figures were 28% and 49%. Technology rose the most (+2.91%); Utilities fell the most (-3.18%). Technology: median money-flow reading -0.04 across 90 stocks, and on-balance volume falling. 60 pattern events landed across the tracked stocks during the week. This is a description of what happened, not a suggestion about what to do.
Market
Conditions moved from a correction to an uptrend under pressure. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% and the Nasdaq rose 2.1% and the Dow Jones rose 0.3% over the week. Heavy-volume down days in the tracked window fell from 7 to 5.
Sector moves
Technology rose the most (+2.91%); Utilities fell the most (-3.18%).
Benchmarks this week
Six markets outside stocks, this Friday against the last — context for the week, not a verdict on it.
Brent crude rose 0.43% over the week.
Gold fell 2.34% over the week.
10-year Treasury rose 0.17 points over the week (latest reading Sep 24).
Euro per dollar rose 0.77% over the week.
Bitcoin rose 3.42% over the week.
VIX rose 0.06 points over the week.
Economic calendar
No scheduled releases this week. The last release was Fed rate decision on Sep 16. 2 scheduled releases next week.
Inflation (PCE): Inflation (PCE), August figures: Wednesday, Sep 30, 08:30 ET.
Jobs report: Jobs report, September figures: Friday, Oct 2, 08:30 ET.
Fed rate decision: Raised its target range by 0.25 points, to 3.75–4.00%.
Pattern events
60 stocks had a pattern take shape or change state. Showing the 5 largest moves.
- ORCL: a bear flag started taking shape on Sep 23.
- ABT: a double top started taking shape on Sep 25.
- ANET: a double top started taking shape on Sep 25.
- CMCSA: a double bottom started taking shape on Sep 25.
- DELL: a bull flag started taking shape on Sep 25.
Breadth
Of the 502 S&P 500 stocks, 26% closed the week above their 50-day average and 46% above their 200-day average. Last week those figures were 28% and 49%.
Sector flow
Median money-flow readings across the week for 11 sectors.
Valuation changes
Sector median valuations from the weekend data refresh, 11 sectors compared.
Earnings summary
6 tracked stocks reported this week: 5 beat and 0 missed the consensus EPS estimate. The median next-session move after a report was -2.3%.
- GIS reported on Sep 23: EPS came in above consensus (+4.6%).
- AZO reported on Sep 22: EPS came in above consensus (+3.6%).
- COST reported on Sep 24: EPS came in above consensus (+3.2%).
- CTAS reported on Sep 23: EPS came in above consensus (+3.0%).
- PAYX reported on Sep 23: EPS came in above consensus (+1.5%).
- DRI reported on Sep 24: EPS came in below consensus (+0.0%).
Across the scan
52 scanned names ended the week in historical value zones — 18 in Technology, 9 in Financial Services. 1 of them shows all three lights green.
- Cheap against its own asset value
Rates context
Where near-riskless yields ended the week — the baseline that riskier returns are measured against, shown for context only.
3-month Treasury bill stood at 4.24%, up 0.12 percentage points on the week.
1-year Treasury stood at 4.51%, up 0.11 percentage points on the week.
10-year Treasury stood at 5.18%, up 0.24 percentage points on the week.
12-month CD, national average stood at 1.73%, up 0.02 percentage points versus the prior monthly reading.
每周市场洞察
上升趋势承压；标普 500 成分股中 46% 位于 200 日均线上方
市场状态从回调转为承压的上升趋势。本周，标普 500上涨 1.2%，纳斯达克上涨 2.1%，道琼斯上涨 0.3%。统计窗口内的放量下跌日从 7 个减少到 5 个。标普 500 的 502 只成分股中，26% 以高于 50 日均线的价格收周，46% 高于 200 日均线。上周这两个数字分别是 28% 和 49%。科技涨幅最大（+2.91%）；公用事业跌幅最大（-3.18%）。科技：90 只股票的资金流读数中位数为 -0.04，能量潮（OBV）走低。本周跟踪的股票中共出现 60 次形态相关的变化。以上描述的是已经发生的事，并非对该做什么的建议。
市场状态从回调转为承压的上升趋势。本周，标普 500上涨 1.2%，纳斯达克上涨 2.1%，道琼斯上涨 0.3%。统计窗口内的放量下跌日从 7 个减少到 5 个。
行业涨跌
科技涨幅最大（+2.91%）；公用事业跌幅最大（-3.18%）。
本周基准
股票之外的六个市场，本周五对比上周五——作为本周的背景，而非评判。
布伦特原油本周上涨 0.43%。
黄金本周下跌 2.34%。
10 年期国债本周上涨 0.17 个百分点（最新读数为 9月24日）。
美元兑欧元本周上涨 0.77%。
比特币本周上涨 3.42%。
VIX本周上涨 0.06 个百分点。
经济日历
本周没有预定的数据发布。最近一次是9月16日的美联储利率决议。下周还有 2 项预定发布。
通胀（PCE）: 通胀（PCE）（8月数据）：9月30日周三，美东时间 08:30。
就业报告: 就业报告（9月数据）：10月2日周五，美东时间 08:30。
美联储利率决议: 将目标区间上调 0.25 个百分点，至 3.75–4.00%。
形态事件
60 只股票有形态开始形成或状态发生变化。这里显示变动最大的 5 只。
- ORCL：它的下降旗形在9月23日开始形成。
- ABT：它的双顶在9月25日开始形成。
- ANET：它的双顶在9月25日开始形成。
- CMCSA：它的双底在9月25日开始形成。
- DELL：它的上升旗形在9月25日开始形成。
市场广度
标普 500 的 502 只成分股中，26% 以高于 50 日均线的价格收周，46% 高于 200 日均线。上周这两个数字分别是 28% 和 49%。
板块资金流
本周 11 个行业的资金流读数中位数。
估值变化
来自周末数据更新的行业估值中位数，共比较了 11 个行业。
财报小结
本周跟踪的股票中有 6 只公布业绩：5 只高于、0 只低于市场一致预期的每股收益。财报公布后下一交易日的中位数变动为 -2.3%。
- GIS 于9月23日公布业绩：每股收益高于一致预期（+4.6%）。
- AZO 于9月22日公布业绩：每股收益高于一致预期（+3.6%）。
- COST 于9月24日公布业绩：每股收益高于一致预期（+3.2%）。
- CTAS 于9月23日公布业绩：每股收益高于一致预期（+3.0%）。
- PAYX 于9月23日公布业绩：每股收益高于一致预期（+1.5%）。
- DRI 于9月24日公布业绩：每股收益低于一致预期（+0.0%）。
扫描概览
本周共有 52 只扫描股票收于历史估值区间，其中18 只属于科技、9 只属于金融服务。其中 1 只三项信号同时为绿灯。
- 相对自身资产价值偏低
利率背景
接近无风险的收益率在本周的落点——它是衡量更高风险回报的参照基准，仅作背景说明。
3 个月期美国国债报 4.24%，较上周上升 0.12 个百分点。
1 年期美国国债报 4.51%，较上周上升 0.11 个百分点。
10 年期美国国债报 5.18%，较上周上升 0.24 个百分点。
12 个月定期存单，全国平均报 1.73%，较上月读数上升 0.02 个百分点。
UnderTheLight 用直白的语言解释股票——估值、价格区间与资金流向。它只描述数据，不构成任何投资建议。
UnderTheLight explains stocks in plain English — valuation, price zones and money flow as traffic lights, recomputed nightly. It describes data; it is not investment advice and never recommends a trade.